Statnett, Norway's transmission grid operator, recently announced a revised forecast for the nation's power supply and demand. The new report suggests that Norway's electricity surplus will now continue until 2028, pushed back from the originally projected 2027 due to slower growth in power demand. High electricity prices in 2022 and delays in some projects have contributed to this adjustment.
In 2022, Norway experienced a surge in electricity prices, resulting in a more permanent dip in general electricity demand than initially expected. Gunnar Lovas, Statnett's head of markets and system development, said, "The growth in demand is somewhat pushed out in our new base case forecast."
The company's previous analysis had forecasted an annual electricity demand of 164 TWh by 2027. This figure has now been revised down to 157 TWh. According to Statnett’s latest short-term market analysis, covering the next five years, demand is set to rise by 26 TWh between 2023 and 2028 to 163 TWh. Production is only anticipated to increase by 7 TWh, matching the expected demand at 163 TWh.
The slower demand growth has also impacted electrification projects in the petroleum sector, leading to their postponement. This stands in contrast to the somewhat more optimistic projections from the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), which still anticipates a 4 TWh surplus in 2028.
Norway is unique in its almost complete reliance on hydro and onshore wind power to meet its electricity needs. The country also has plans to introduce its first offshore wind farms by 2030 and is experiencing a slow growth in solar power installations.
Source: Zawya, Reuters